EirGrid predicts threat of power cuts less likely this winter than last

The risk of power cuts this winter is less than last year, according to the national power grid's operator EirGrid.

However, EirGrid said there is a still a "reasonable probability" that supply will not meet demand, but it hopes to avoid this by managing power use by large energy users, including data centres, and the introduction of emergency generation.

According to EirGrid, the Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) figure would suggest that, on average, electricity consumers could potentially be without supply for up to 2 hours over the winter period.

However, emergency protocols are in place with large energy users that would mitigate the impact on homes and businesses, where sufficient notice of an event can be provided (minimum of 1 hour).

LOLE and EUE are metrics used to measure the risk or likelihood of such an event happening.

"This does not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will be without supply for any period during the winter. In last year’s Winter Outlook, the EUE figure suggested that consumers could be without power for 4 hours, yet consumers experienced no loss of power during the winter due to capacity issues. Based on information at the time of the data
freeze, mid ‑December is expected to be the most onerous period from a capacity margin perspective," EirGrid says in its Winter Outlook 2023/24.

The grid operator said the introduction of agreement on mandatory reduction in power usage by large energy users in times of emergency and the gradual introduction of emergency gas and diesel generating capacity has reduced the system’s exposure.

The total generation capacity in Ireland, according to EirGrid, is made up of a variety of different types of generating units; combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) (gas), thermal generation plant (coal, heavy fuel oil, peat/biomass), peaker plant (gas and distillate), renewables (mostly hydro, wind and solar), demand side units (DSUs), storage (pumped hydro and batteries), and a small volume of other technologies