Air pollution estimated to cause 130 lung cancer cases a year in NI, study finds

Air pollution is estimated to cause more than 130 lung cancer cases each year in Northern Ireland, according to a new study.

The research was led by scientists from Queen’s University Belfast’s Cancer Epidemiology Research Group in the Centre for Public Health.

Working with researchers from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), the report estimated that around 10% of lung cancer cases in the region are due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

This amounts to 137 cases each year.

The team linked the postcodes of more than 900 lung cancer patients and over 8,000 cancer-free controls to high-resolution historical air pollution maps.

This allowed them to estimate long-term exposure to PM2.5, tiny particles that penetrate deep into the lungs, and calculate the associated cancer risk.

The study estimated that people in the most polluted areas have a 37% higher risk of lung cancer than those in the least polluted areas.

It also estimated the excess risk is especially marked in women, who show a 79% higher risk at the highest exposure levels compared to women in the lowest.

Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer death in Northern Ireland, with more than 1,300 new diagnoses every year.

Rawan Alhattab, lead author and PhD Student from the Centre for Public Health at Queen’s University Belfast, said: “These findings remind us that air pollution is not just an environmental issue — it is a clear and preventable threat to public health.

“Every lung cancer case linked to air pollution represents suffering that could have been avoided if we act decisively to reduce exposure.”

Dr Dan Middleton, senior author of the study and lecturer and cancer epidemiologist from the Centre for Public Health said: “Outdoor air pollution has been classified as a Group 1 human carcinogen since 2013, so these findings come as no surprise.

“They should, however, come as a wake-up call to policy makers, whose inadequate efforts to tackle air pollution are costing lives – a toll we are now able to quantify.”

The authors emphasised that more urgent measures are needed to reduce exposure.

Although their analysis focused solely on lung cancer, the team is now exploring whether air pollution contributes to other cancer types.

The authors highlighted that Belfast is among the most car-dependent cities in Europe, with vehicle emissions a major source of particulate pollution. In addition, a significant share of Northern Ireland households relies on home heating oil, with coal and other solid fuel use also widespread in rural areas.

The new study has been published in the British Journal of Cancer.