Charlie from the Stands: You get what you deserve!

With Halloween upon us, it is unfortunate but the this weekend’s showdown at the Brandywell now looks like something cut from a nightmare.

I don’t know which worse – Shelbourne coming to Derry and lifting their first Premier Division title since robbing Derry City on goal difference in 2006, or Shamrock Rovers completing a miraculous comeback to claim their fifth League title in a row.

For Derry City, it will be the closing of a campaign which promised so much the whole way throughout the season, until the wheels fell off when faced with a chance to take hold of their title aspirations. Too many stalemates have cost Ruaidhri Higgins’ side dearly as the quest to bring the Premier Division trophy back to Foyleside looks to be delayed for another year.

For Damien Duff’s Shelbourne, it is insane to think that in 2016, Shels finished sixth in the First Division – looking a fractured side on the pitch, and one even more so off it. Now, on the brink of claiming the Premier Division, you have to applaud how impressive a climb it has been for the Tolka Park side.

After winning the league title in 2006, Shelbourne struggled with financial issues that had been brewing for some time. These financial difficulties led to a crisis that culminated in the club being unable to secure the necessary licenses to compete in European competitions. The aftermath meant that a rebuild was needed, and in fairness to Shelbourne, through strong emphasis on youth development and community engagement, they have built a solid foundation/brand in which Duff is now working on nurturing.

Very few people would have envisaged Shelbourne being a title contender at the start of the season, seen perhaps as mid-table at best. As is the fashion in League of Ireland, there is always a club that defies expectation and comes out of nowhere to play a pivotal role in the destination of the Premier Division title.

Shels have navigated this season incredibly well, albeit with teams around them failing to capitalise on their slip-ups.

Losing key players like Will Jarvis and Gavin Molloy during the season, should have knocked Shels off-course, but their replacements and the experience of the likes of Paddy Barrett, Sean Gannon, Sam Bone and Mark Coyle have helped them keep the ship steady. Jarvis being recalled by Hull City indeed was particularly disappointing, considering he has yet to feature for the Championship side since. His loss was particularly felt, as when he was playing Shels averaged 1.25 goals per game, and only 0.75 since he left.

Shelbourne fans probably accepted Gavin Molloy leaving a little better considering how well he is performing for Aberdeen, starting all eight games for Aberdeen so far, with no defeats. Despite the departures, and going through a sticky 10 game winless run, they still found themselves top of the league - madness.

When Shelbourne were taken apart by Derry City at the Aviva in the 2022 FAI Cup Final, I was concerned with how they would react. Losing so heavily in a final would leave deep scars of imposter syndrome in each and every player/staff member. But not this Shelbourne team, or for that matter, the management team - they pulled everyone together and went on to secure Europe in 2023, and now find themselves on the brink of something special, fuelled by a resilience, grit and a drive that will go down in League of Ireland history should they lift the title on Friday.

Their title rivals right now are Shamrock Rovers, and believe me, the pain of having to discuss them in this article is real.

With four titles in four seasons, nobody would have imagined that they would be in the running after their disastrous opening few months of this campaign. For me, Shamrock Rovers have one of the most talented squads ever assembled in the League’s history, but as we know, that means nothing and guarantees nothing.

You then look at the off-the-field structure, their fanbase and the riches bestowed upon the manager Stephen Bradley, from the beginning of the season it looked ominous for the other teams. Throughout the season, it looked like Rovers were distracted, whether that was Europe, player injuries or disputes at board level, something was amiss for a team as talented as this, to lose nine games.

Yet Bradley kept his head down and turned it around by not only qualifying for the Conference League group stages, but collecting four points from a possible six, which financially has earned Rovers an extra €450,000, which takes their earnings over the €5m mark from Europe this season. All the while, they were also creeping up the League table, as Derry City and Shelbourne stumbled.

Then thinking longer-term, this weekend’s results could have a huge bearing on the League next year. Indeed, the Champions are guaranteed a much easier route to a European group stage, meaning if Shamrock Rovers win their fifth league in as many years, the knock-on revenue could see them pull further and further away from the rest of the League - something nobody wants to see. Or should Shelbourne get over the line, it could see Shelbourne land a huge payday in Europe next year and help them recruit, retain and develop their own squad.

What a weekend we have in store.

Permutations:

Title:

Shelbourne win if they beat Derry City, or if Shamrock Rovers fail to beat Waterford

Shamrock Rovers must beat Waterford at home, and hope Shelbourne drop points away to Derry.

If Shelbourne draw and Shamrock Rovers win, then Rovers will take it on goal difference.

European spots:

Shelbourne are guaranteed at least UEFA Conference League qualifying next season.

Shamrock Rovers could still miss out on Europe if they are beaten by Waterford, and if Derry beat Shelbourne, St Pats win and Drogheda win the cup final – farfetched, but stranger things have happened.

St Pat’s need to equal Derry City’s result to guarantee top three. Should they get beat by Sligo and Derry pick up points against Shels, St Pat’s would then be relaying on Derry to win the FAI Cup to make Europe.

Derry City need to better St Pat’s result, or must win the FAI Cup to guarantee European football.

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The beauty of football is the league table doesn’t lie.

Football is like life, you get what you deserve.