At least 1,147 died from climate-driven heat in UK this summer, scientists find

At least 1,147 people in the UK died from climate change-driven heatwaves over this summer, leading scientists and epidemiologists have found.

The UK saw its hottest summer on record this year, with experts saying extreme heat incidents were made more likely and intense by human-induced global warming.

A study led by researchers at Imperial College London, released on Wednesday, used modelling, historical mortality records and peer-reviewed methods to provide early estimates of fatalities this summer.

The team found climate change, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, increased temperatures by an average of 2.2C, but by as much as 3.6C between June and August.

The heat was responsible for 68% of the 24,400 total heat deaths in 854 European cities or areas over the three months, according to its analysis.

This amounts to an additional 16,500 lives lost, compared with what may have been seen during a summer not heated by human activities – including 835 deaths in Rome, 630 in Athens, 409 in Paris, and 387 in Madrid, it found.

For the UK, there were 315 deaths in London, 52 in Birmingham, 24 in Glasgow and Sheffield, 22 in Edinburgh and 14 each in Belfast, Leeds, Wolverhampton and Dundee, according to the analysis.

Elsewhere, Doncaster saw at least 12 deaths, Leicester saw at least 11, Cardiff saw nine, both Nottingham and Swansea saw eight, and Manchester, Newcastle and Bristol all saw seven.

But the researchers warned that the results of their analysis are only a snapshot of the death toll linked to extreme heat, with the cities and areas studied representing about 30% of Europe’s population.

They also said the majority of heat-related deaths go unreported, while official government figures can take months to appear, underscoring why extreme heat is known as a “silent killer”.

People often die from underlying conditions such as heart, respiratory, or kidney problems that are aggravated by high temperatures, with the role of heat rarely recorded on death certificates.

Clair Barnes, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: “It may not sound like much, but our study shows that shifts in summer heat of just a few degrees can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people.

“It is another reminder that climate change isn’t an issue we can just deal with at some point in the future.

“The longer it takes governments to shift away from fossil fuels and cut emissions, the deadlier summer heat will become – even with efforts to become more resilient to extreme temperatures.”

Heat deaths reported across the continent included a 51-year-old street cleaner in Barcelona, Spain, and a 47-year-old construction worker in San Lazzaro di Savena, Italy.

The study found that people aged 65 and over made up 85% of the excess deaths in Europe this summer – and those over 85 make up 41%.

The researchers said this shows that even a few degrees of additional heat can cause large surges in deaths when vulnerable people are exposed to temperatures beyond the limits they are used to dealing with.

However, the team also noted that other factors play a role, such as preparedness, population demographics and air pollution.

They called for policies to build resilience to extreme heat, such as building green and blue spaces in cities, where concrete surfaces trap heat and transport increases urban temperatures.

The analysis was conducted by 11 researchers from Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the University of Bern, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the University of Copenhagen.

Malcolm Mistry, assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Heat-health warning systems and action plans are actually well-developed across most regions in Europe.

“However, even with warnings issued by meteorological and public health authorities across Europe, the health burden associated with heat has remained consistently high in recent summers.

“Policies to adapt to heat are important, such as introducing flexible work schedules, adjusting the school calendar, increasing urban green space and air conditioning, as well as improving public health infrastructure.

“But the harsh reality is that unless we urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the above interventions are going to have a limited role in mitigating the risks of human-induced global warming, not only on health, but also on other sectors such as agriculture.”

A separate global analysis by research organisation Climate Central, published on Wednesday, also found that one in five people worldwide – 1.8 billion every day – lived through heat strongly influenced by climate change.

Nearly a billion people endured a full month of additional dangerous heat, the study said.