Charlie From the Stands: Watching High Stakes Poker at the Aviva

Sitting in the Aviva on Sunday evening, I was a ball of optimism and nerves. In the middle of these emotions, I was also confident that we would see a display whereby Stephen Kenny’s Ireland side would attack the Dutch and put their world stars to the test.  

After 20 minutes, the near-50,000 fans saw Ireland press Netherlands with intensity and purpose, a press that was rewarded in the opening minutes seeing an Adam Idah penalty put the home side in the lead against one of the best teams in Europe. This press also resulted in two further chances, one which Ogbene should have converted first time, and another where big Virgl Van Dijk was dispossessed by the willing Idah on the edge of his box, before being given a rather fortuitous free-kick.   

What was more impressive in the opening stages that you may have not seen on the telly was Ireland going three on three at the back, high-stakes football at its very best and football that has never been seen at the Aviva before – certainly not in my lifetime. This high-risk, high-reward football could have been maintained for a longer period, had it not been for the effort put in against France just a few days before.  

But alas, Ireland fell to another defeat and one which may have ended not only this qualifying campaign, but many believe, the reign of my old boss, Stephen Kenny. 

For what it’s worth, here is my take on the situation… 

Prior to Stephen Kenny getting the job, there would have been a long and detailed interview discussion about the remit of the role. What has been clear throughout Stephen Kenny’s managerial career is that he doesn’t sit back, park the bus and watch other teams have possession. That’s not his game. This was evident in Europe with Dundalk. Nor does he tolerate players that are not technically good enough, or ones that fail to put a shift in.  

During these discussions, I presume the FAI wanted to see a shift in how the men’s international team played, playing the long-play card of affording Stephen with some time as the Manager of the Under 21’s first, and allowing him ample time to see what fresh blood was coming through. Undoubtedly, qualification for the Euros in 2024 would have been top of the priorities list – surely by then this new style and new squad would be implemented by then. 

As you would expect with any manager being challenged to reinvent the wheel of a nation’s football culture, there was always going to be some indifferent results, particularly in the early stages. Luxemburg at home is etched into the memories. But looking at Ireland’s last ten competitive fixtures makes for interesting, albeit maybe uninspiring reading. 

Ireland 0-1 Ukraine 

Ireland 3-0 Scotland 

Ireland 1-1 Ukraine 

Scotland 2-1 Ireland 

Ireland 3-2 Armenia  

Ireland 0-1 France 

Greece 2-1 Ireland  

Ireland 3-0 Gibraltar  

France 2-0 Ireland 

Ireland 1-2 Netherlands  

Looking at those results, which of those can you point to as a result that screams ‘terrible’, ‘shocking’, ‘disgraceful’? 

When you consider the governance of any manager at club or international level, for me, this has always been the fans. When fans are behind a manager and stick with him on a journey of evolution, it is priceless. Think of Alex Ferguson when he first joined Manchester United.  

For these fans, there was always going to be pain, heartache and disappointment but it’s tough to pinpoint that in any of those last 10 games. In fact, I see progress from when Stephen started – a large amount of progress – and sections of fans see it too.  

So, the next place to look when a manager’s position is being considered by the board or a chairman or association - the players. Are the players happy? Are they performing? Do they understand and believe in what the manager is trying to achieve? I would say in this case, absolutely, yes. But in true association fashion, I have no doubt that the FAI will be covertly conversing with the senior players, asking just that before they make any decision.  

So, if the fans are happy, and the players have bought in and the FAI opt to stick with the mission, Stephen Kenny should be kept in place until the Playoff game in March.  

The FAI are undoubtedly doing what every association, board or chairman should be doing anyway, succession planning. You would hope that that does not involve any element of bowing to the new wave of pundits out to make a name for themselves. The boys - Richard Dunne, Damien Delaney, Didi Hamman and the rest - who take the easy way out and just shout about results ‘not being good enough’, looking at the results above the Greece defeat in Athens. It’s not what we had hoped but let’s put it into perspective - Greece hadn’t lost a home game in over three years.  

The FAI are meeting today, so by the time you read this column, there will be a real chance that Stephen Kenny’s tenure as Ireland manager might be at an end. My own verdict would be to give Stephen until the playoff game in March, and then further review the progress towards his remit, look at the succession plan and make an educated decision.  

The Showdown 

For Derry City, this weekend is one where they cannot win the league, but they can certainly lose it. A defeat would see Ruaidhri Higgins’ side drop seven points behind, and with the remaining fixtures, that would be insurmountable.  

I would love to see both teams at full fitness and going head-to-head, the best players in country squaring up to each other. Unfortunately, that may not be the case with Michael Duffy, Patrick McEleney and Mark Connolly all struggling with knocks, as well as Rovers being unlikely to have the services of Jack Byrne available, and Trevor Clarke and Neil Farrugia are still on their return from injury.   

There are several key battles to keep an eye on, and these are ones which may determine the result: 

Rory Gaffney was the match-winner in Tallaght earlier this season and will likely come up against Cameron McJannet and Shane McEleney. Keeping the experienced Gaffney quiet will be integral to Derry’s chances.  

Will Patching has definitely got his ‘mojo’ back during the second half of the season, going from strength to strength since Derry’s European exit. As a creative player, he will face a stern challenge from the antithesis of creativity in midfield, Gary O’Neill, who plays a key role in Stephen Bradley’s 3-4-2-1 formation. O’Neill is technically sound, and will relish stopping Patching from having an effect on the game, whilst allowing the likes of Graham Burke and Richie Towell the freedom to attack. 

Playing three at the back with your wing-backs high can often cause issues defensively, and Paul McMullan will be out to torture Lee Grace in the right side channel. Grace is another competitive and competent defender, but he will not fancy coming directly against the diminutive McMullan who, without knowing it, will create space for the likes of Patching, McEleney, Duffy and Danny Mullen by taking Grace inside and outside. 

Finally, I feel that if Farrugia plays, himself and Ben Doherty will have a right ding-dong, high-risk, old-school encounter. Keep an eye on this - both are so confident that they are happy to stay two or three yards ahead of each other. 

Personally, I just can’t see Shamrock Rovers winning on Friday night. My heart is saying that Derry will find enough with the home faithful playing a big part, but my head is saying this will turn out a score draw.  

FAI Cup predictions: 

It’s the business end of the FAI Cup, with quarter-finals taking place this weekend.  With Shelbourne now three points ahead of Dundalk in the league, Dundalk must not slip up in their pursuit of cup glory, being their only avenue into European competition next year. They are playing well right now, two excellent performances against the top two sides will give them confidence going into this one. Galway have ripped up trees in the First Division this season, effectively securing the title a month ago and will see this as a great opportunity to get a scalp of a team they will be competing with next season. However, I expect an easy win for Dundalk on a good pitch at Eamon Deacy Park. 

Drogheda United will be aiming to be the second Louth side in the semi-finals, as they entertain Bohemians. My ex-employers won’t like this, but I see Kevin Doherty’s side taking victory here. I have mentioned before that making difficult decisions generally brings great rewards, and I feel that Drogheda will see this as a golden opportunity. 

It is difficult to look past the Premier Division sides in the two Premier vs First Division clashes. In Ballybofey, a struggling Finn Harps entertain St Pat’s in what could be a long night for Dave Rogers’ side. Pats’ manager Jon Daly watched on as Harps capitulated to a 4-0 defeat in their last outing against Waterford, and you’d expect them to progress at a canter. In the other tie, Cork City have been largely disappointing this season and may be facing down the barrel of a relegation playoff, but they should have too much for Wexford.